Polysilicon Prices Remain Stable in the New Round of Quotations with Limited Upstream Transactions [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

Last week, silicon metal market prices remained stable, with suppliers' spot quotations basically flat compared to pre-Chinese New Year levels. In east China, above-standard #553 silicon metal was priced at 10,800-10,900 yuan/mt. The market was mainly inquiry-driven, with downstream silicon-aluminum alloy and silicone sectors seeing limited on-demand order transactions.

In February, operating rates among silicon enterprises of different scales are expected to continue diverging. Some capacity of top-tier enterprises in Xinjiang began resuming production in late January, while small and medium-sized silicon enterprises showed weaker operating rates. Additionally, February has fewer production days than January, leading to an expected MoM decline in overall silicon metal production.

Social Inventory: According to SMM data, as of February 7, the national social inventory of silicon metal totaled 543,000 mt, up 3,000 mt from pre-Chinese New Year levels. Among this, general social warehouses held 150,000 mt, down 1,000 mt, while social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warehouse warrants and spot cargo) held 393,000 mt, up 4,000 mt. (This inventory data excludes regions such as Inner Mongolia and Ningxia.)

By the end of the week, N-type recharging polysilicon was priced at 39-45 yuan/kg, and N-type dense polysilicon was priced at 38-42 yuan/kg. Post-Chinese New Year, market transactions remained limited, coupled with expectations of increased production and inventory pressure, keeping prices temporarily stable.

In February, some second- and third-tier enterprises increased production. Polysilicon production schedules are expected to exceed 90,000 mt, with several enterprises planning to resume production, leaving room for further production growth.

This week, as market order signing gradually slowed, polysilicon inventory increased.

In the current module market, mainstream transaction prices for centralized projects were 0.64-0.69 yuan/W for N-type 182mm modules and 0.65-0.7 yuan/W for N-type 210mm modules. Post-holiday, both distributed and centralized prices showed an upward trend.

Demand entered the off-season in Q1, leading most enterprises to lower February operating rates and produce based on demand. A few enterprises with better orders increased production schedules. Overall production is expected to rise in March.

Currently, inventory has been partially reduced, with overall inventory levels still at 1-1.5 months.

Last week, some quartz sand enterprises raised their quotations. Currently, domestic inner-layer sand is priced at 60,000-75,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand at 30,000-45,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand at 19,000-25,000 yuan/mt. No transactions were recorded for quartz sand this week, as crucible enterprises gradually resumed operations. Future pricing is expected to be primarily negotiated.

The supply side remains at a low level, with top-tier enterprises' production lines not fully restored and other sand enterprises not increasing operating rates.

Quartz sand enterprise inventories slightly increased compared to pre-Chinese New Year levels, but the growth trend slowed as supply tightened.

3.2mm Single-Layer Coating: PV glass was quoted at 19.5-20.5 yuan/m², with prices remaining stable.
3.2mm Double-Layer Coating: PV glass was quoted at 20.5-21.5 yuan/m², with prices remaining stable.
2.0mm Single-Layer Coating: PV glass was quoted at 11.5-12.5 yuan/m², with prices remaining stable.
2.0mm Double-Layer Coating: PV glass was quoted at 12.5-13.5 yuan/m², with prices remaining stable.

This week, the supply side remained stable. Previously planned cold repairs for kilns have been temporarily suspended, and future supply is expected to strengthen.

During the Chinese New Year holiday, PV glass enterprises experienced varying degrees of inventory accumulation. However, with module stockpiling progressing in February, inventory levels are expected to start declining soon.